GCAP:

Global Change and Air Pollution

People

Pictures

Papers

Presentations

GCAP is a multi-institutional project initiated in fall 2003 under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) STAR Program. The goal of GCAP is to investigate the effects of global changes in climate and emissions on ozone and particulate matter (PM) air quality as well as on mercury deposition in the United States. Our approach is based on 2000-2050 transient climate simulations using the NASA/GISS general circulation model (GCM) applied to future emission scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The GISS GCM simulations are used to examine trends in air pollution meteorology, and to serve as input to global simulations of ozone and PM with the GEOS-Chem global chemical tracer model (CTM). Output from both the GISS GCM and GEOS-Chem CTM are used in turn as dynamic boundary conditions for regional air quality simulations using the EPA MM5 and CMAQ models.

GCAP people

Blueprint for GCAP project


GCAP Phase 2 kick-off meeting: October 12, 2007 at Harvard University
  • Overview of GCAP Project, Loretta Mickley. [ppt]

  • Update on emissions component of GCAP Phase 2 project, David Streets. [ppt]

  • GISS Model 3 development, David Rind. [ppt]

  • Effect of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States, Shiliang Wu. [ppt]

  • The effect of future climate change on aerosols: Biogenic SOA and inorganics, Havala Pye. [pdf]

  • 2007 group meeting: global climate and air pollution (GCAP), Joshua Fu. [ppt]

  • Downscaling of global model to regional scale model(GISS to MM5): Preliminary results, Daewon Byun. [ppt]

  • Trends in mid-latitude cyclone frequency and their effect on air quality, Eric Leibensperger. [ppt]

  • Mercury and GCAP, Nicole Smith-Downey. [ppt]

  • Diagnosing the sensitivity of ozone air quality to climate change over the United States, Moeko Yoshitomi. [ppt]

  • A statistical method for calculating the impact of climate change on future air quality, Loretta Mickley [ppt]



GCAP pictures

The climate change penalty on ozone air quality. Shown above are the climate-driven changes of summertime 90th percentile surface ozone (in ppb) relative to the present-day, with (a) present-day and (b) reduced anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors. By 2050, climate change causes a 2-5 ppb increase in surface ozone over the Midwest and northeastern United States, partly driven by decreased ventilation from convection and frontal passages (panel a). But optimistic reductions in anthropogenic emissions, especially NOx, can significantly mitigate the climate penalty and can even turn it into a climate benefit in the southeast and northwest United States (panel b). For more details, see Wu et al., 2008.


2000-2100 predicted changes in sulfate concentration at the surface. Shown are annual mean changes in ppt. In a warmer climate, weaker Hadley cells lead to higher concentrations over the tropics and larger precipitation reduces concentrations at mid-high latitudes. Higher mixing ratios over populated areas result from the locally higher levels of ozone, OH, and H2O2 in the warmer climate. For more details, see Liao et al., 2006.




GCAP papers

  • Jacob, D.J., and D.A. Winner, Effect of climate change on air quality, Atmos. Environ., 43, 51-63, 2009. [PDF]

  • Streets, D.G., Q. Zhang, and Y. Wu, Projections of global mercury emissions in 2050, Environ. Sci. Technol. 43, 2983-2988, 2009. [PDF]

  • Pye, H. O. T., J. H. Seinfeld, H. Liao, S. Wu, L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob and D. K. Henze, Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States, J. Geophys. Res. 114, D01205, 2009. [PDF]

  • Fu, J.S., D.G. Streets, C.J. Jang, J. Hao, K. He, L. Wang, and Q. Zhang, Modeling regional/urban ozone and particulate matter in Beijing, China, J. Air & Waste Management Association 59, (1), 37-44, 2009. [PDF]

  • Wu, S., L.J. Mickley, D.J. Jacob, D. Rind, and D. G. Streets, Effects of 2000-2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy relevant surface background ozone in the United States, J. Geophys. Res. 113, D18312, doi:10.1029/2007JD009639, 2008. [PDF]

  • Wu, S., L.J. Mickley, E.M. Leibensperger, D.J. Jacob, D. Rind and D.G. Streets, Effects of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06302, doi:10.1029/2007JD008917, 2008. [PDF]

  • Liao, H., D. K. Henze, J. H. Seinfeld, S. Wu, and L. J. Mickley, Biogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol over the United States: Comparison of Climatological Simulations with Observations, J. Geophys. Res. 112, doi:10.1029/2006JD007813, 2007. [PDF]

  • Mickley, L.J., A Future short of breath: Possible effects of climate change on smog, Environment 49, 34-43, 2007. [Full Text (pdf)]

  • Rind, D., J. Lerner, J. Jonas, and C. McLinden, Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res. 112, D09315, doi:10.1029/2006JD007476, 2007. [PDF]

  • Fu, J., MICS-Asia II: Modeling Gaseous Pollutants and Evaluating an Advanced Modeling System Over East Asia, Atmos. Env. 42 , (15), 3571-3583, 2008.

  • Wu, S., L.J. Mickley, D.J. Jacob, J.A. Logan, R.M. Yantosca, and D. Rind, Why are there large differences between models in global budgets of tropospheric ozone?, J. Geophys. Res. 112,, D05302, doi:10.1029/2006JD007801, 2007. [PDF]

  • Liao, H., W.T. Chen, and J.H. Seinfeld, Role of climate change in global predictions of future tropospheric ozone and aerosol, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12304, doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006852, 2006. [PDF]

  • Mickley, L.J., D.J. Jacob, B.D. Field, and D. Rind, Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States, Geophys. Res. Let., 30, L24103, doi:10.1029/2004GL021216, 2004. [Abstract] [PDF]

  • Streets, D.G., T.C. Bond, T. Lee, and C. Jang, On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D24212, doi:10.1029/2004JD004902, 2004. [PDF]



GCAP presentations

  • Effects of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States, special seminar by Shiliang Wu at Harvard University, Cambridge,MA, May 23, 2007. [PDF]

  • Effects of global change on air quality in the United States, seminar by Daniel J. Jacob at the University of Washington, Seattle, May 18, 2007. [PPT]

  • The effect of climate on secondary organic aerosols, presented by Havala Pye at the The 3rd GEOS-Chem Users' Meeting, Harvard University, April 11, 2007, [PPT]

  • Coupling of global-regional models for impact of climate change on air quality, presented by Daewon Byun at the The 3rd GEOS-Chem Users' Meeting, Harvard University, April 13, 2007, [PPT]

  • Comparisons of ozone and aerosols in US and East Asia between 2001 and 2002, presented by Joshua Fu at the The 3rd GEOS-Chem Users' Meeting, Harvard University, April 13, 2007, [PPT]

  • Effect of climate change on U.S. air quality, briefing by Daniel J. Jacob to EPA air quality managers, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, February 20. 2007. [PPT]

  • Effects of 2000-2050 global change on U.S. ozone air quality, poster presented by Shiliang Wu at the EPA meeting on Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, February 21, 2007. [PDF]

  • Air Quality Degradation Due to Greenhouse Warming Decreasing the Frequency of Mid-Latitude Cyclones, poster presented by Eric Leibensperger at the EPA Workshop on Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, February 21, 2007. [PPT]

  • Global change and air pollution, presented by Daniel Jacob at the EPA Meeting on Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, February 20. 2006. [PPT]

  • Effects of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air pollution in the United States, presented by Shiliang Wu at the the Fall Meeting of the AGU, San Francisco, December 14, 2006. [PPT]

  • From air pollution to global change and back: a personal journey through atmospheric chemistry, presented by Daniel J. Jacob at the MIT Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate (PAOC) Retreat, Mt. Snow, Vermont, September 16, 2006. [PPT]

  • Global change and air pollution, presented by Shiliang Wu at the EPA science forum, Washington, DC, May 17, 2006. [PPT]

  • Interactions of climate change and air quality: research priorities and new directions, presented by Daniel Jacob at the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Workshop: Climate Science in Support of Decision Making, Arlington, Virginia, November, 2005. [PPT]

  • GCAP: Global climate and air pollution, presented by Loretta J. Mickley at the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Workshop: Climate Science in Support of Decision Making, Arlington, Virginia, November, 2005. [PPT]

  • Overview from 2nd GCAP Science Team Meeting, Harvard University, September 26, 2005. [PPT]

  • Regional/Urban Air Quality Modeling in Beijing and Shanghai, presented by Joshua Fu, CMAQ Models-3 Conference, Chapel Hill, September, 2005.

  • Aerosol and gas emissions: dissecting future aerosol emissions, presented by David G. Streets, Workshop on Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: Alternative Scenarios -- Their Benefits and Costs. Honolulu, Hawaii, April 4-6, 2005.

  • Global simulation of secondary organic carbon aerosols, presented by Hong Liao, GEOS-CHEM users meeting, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, April 4-6, 2005. [PPT]

  • Evaluation of the GEOS-CHEM/CMAQ interface over China and the United States, presented by Zuopan Li, GEOS-CHEM users meeting, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, April 4-6, 2005. [PPT]

  • Effect of climate change on air pollution episodes in the United States: a model study, presented by Loretta J. Mickley at the Climate Change Reseach Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, March 22, 2005. [PPT]

  • The pollution-climate connection: How climate change could affect pollution episodes in the United States, Presented by Loretta J. Mickley at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington D.C., February 19, 2005. [PPT]

  • Update on the application of a unified aerosol-chemistry-climate GCM to understand the effects of changing climate and global anthropogenic emissions on U.S. air quality, presented by Loretta Mickley at the EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Annual Meeting, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, May 24-25, 2004. [ PPT]

  • Agenda and Presentations from 1st GCAP Science Team Meeting, GISS, New York, Nov 12, 2003

  • Interactions of air pollution and climate change, presented by Daniel J. Jacob at the EPRI Sponsors' Meeting, San Antonio, Texas, September 8, 2003. [PPT]

  • Application of a unified aerosol-chemistry-climate model GCM to understand the effects of changing climate and global anthropogenic emissions on U.S. air quality, presented by Daniel J. Jacob at the EPA STAR02 Investigators' Meeting, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, March 23, 2003. [PPT]

Last updated September 21,2009. Send email to webmaster Loretta J. Mickley
.